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Monday, July 30, 2012 9:34 AM


51% of Germans Believe Germany Better Off Outside Eurozone, 71% Favor Greece Leaving; Implications on Constitutional Court Ruling


A recent poll says 51 percent of Germans now believe Germany would be better off without the euro.

The Emnid poll for the Bild am Sonntag mass circulation weekly showed 51pc of Germans believed Europe's top economy would be better outside the 17-country eurozone. Twenty-nine percent said it would be worse off, AFP reports.

The survey also showed that 71pc of Germans wanted Greece to leave the euro if it did not live up to its austerity promises.

Economy Minister Philipp Roesler told Bild am Sonntag there were "considerable doubts whether Greece is living up to its reform promises."
Implications on Constitutional Court Ruling

That poll, with only 29% believeing the euro is a good thing, suggests that if the German constitutional court forced Merkel to put the euro to a referendum, that Germany would vote to leave the eurozone.

On September 12, the German constitution court is expected to rule on the ESM as well as the fiscal treaty chancellor Angela Merkel signed in March.

Is it any wonder ECB president Mario Draghi is loathe to do anything but talk before the court meets?

Should the court rule both are OK, eurocrats like Jean-Claude Juncker will immediately seek to change what the ESM can do, including the use of leverage.

Let Voters Decide

Given that Germany is better off outside the eurozone, and the eurozone is arguably better off without Germany, hopefully, the constitutional court will say it's time to put all of this to voters, including whether Germany should stay in the eurozone.

Unfortunately, I expect the court will OK both the ESM and the Merkozy treaty, but give further warnings to Merkel and the ECB that 500 million euros is the limit.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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